McGehee misses cycle, but his big day helps Brewers crush Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Casey McGehee finished with four hits, a double short of a cycle, and drove in five to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to an 11-2 win over the Chicago Cubs.

Mike Cameron was 2-for-3 with a three-run homer and four total RBI for the Brewers, who had lost the first two contests of this four-game set and dropped three in a row overall.

J.J. Hardy homered and finished with two of the Brewers' 14 hits, while also scoring twice.

Braden Looper (7-4) allowed two runs on six hits and three walks over six innings. Both his runs allowed came on Milton Bradley's two-run homer in the third inning.

Aside from Bradley's homer, the Cubs had only six singles and hit into three double plays, as they had a three-game win streak broken.

Chicago starter Rich Harden (5-5) surrendered seven runs on eight hits and a walk in two-plus innings, and took the loss.

The Brewers struck for five runs in the first inning, which Craig Counsell began with a single. Ryan Braun later doubled to put runners in scoring position, and after Harden intentionally walked Prince Fielder, McGehee hit a two-run single to center.

Cameron followed with a homer to left-center for a 5-0 Milwaukee lead.

Hardy's solo homer in the second made it a six-run game, and the Brewers went up 7-0 in the third. McGehee led off with a triple and scored on Cameron's double.

Bradley's two-run shot in the home third, after Derrek Lee hit a leadoff single, got the Cubs within five. Chicago did not have another hit until Mike Fontenot's single with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Brewers to take further control.

Hardy scored on a passed ball in the fourth, and McGehee followed with an RBI single to push Milwaukee's lead to 9-2. McGehee's two-run homer in the sixth made it an 11-2 game, and he had a chance to go for the cycle in the eighth, but grounded into a double play.

Game Notes

Harden allowed a season-high in earned runs and had his shortest outing of 2009...Cameron's homer was his 14th this season, while Hardy hit his ninth and McGehee belted his sixth...Bradley's HR was his sixth of the year. He also walked twice...The Cubs still lead the season series, 5-4.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP

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